As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its third year, hopes for peace remain distant as both countries grapple with deep-seated differences over core demands. The prospect of direct negotiations, recently suggested by Russian President Vladimir Putin, seems uncertain.
On Sunday, President Putin called for the resumption of direct talks with Ukraine without any preconditions, proposing a meeting in Istanbul on May 15. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded, expressing readiness to meet, but noted that Moscow has yet to confirm who would attend the talks.
The last in-person meeting between the two leaders occurred in December 2019, and the most recent direct talks were held in March 2022 in Istanbul, shortly after Russia initiated what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
According to Sun Zhuangzhi, director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European, and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the chances of immediate direct talks are slim. “Even though Putin’s proposal is constructive, direct talks will be hard to realize in the short term,” Sun told China Media Group.
Sun suggests that Russia is serious about negotiations, aiming to build on the consensus reached during the March 2022 talks, including previously drafted documents. He believes that direct engagement is essential, especially since mediation efforts by the United States have yet to yield tangible results. Moreover, Russia hopes this proposal will address Ukraine’s call for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.
However, Sun points out that Ukraine insists on an unconditional ceasefire before any negotiations can begin, a stance supported by its European allies. “On the surface, the dispute over whether to negotiate first or declare a ceasefire seems like a simple procedural disagreement,” he explained. “Yet beneath it lies a far more complex situation.”
He emphasized that a ceasefire requires mutual agreement and effective engagement from both sides. “Although there have been previous attempts at a ceasefire, none have truly taken hold for one reason or another,” Sun added.
The core demands of both nations highlight a significant divide. Russia seeks to address the root causes of the conflict, wants NATO to halt all military aid to Ukraine, and seeks assurances that Ukraine will never join NATO. Meanwhile, Ukraine is determined to secure Western assistance, uphold its territorial sovereignty, and continue its pursuit of NATO membership.
“In the absence of mutual trust, advancing talks or even achieving a genuine ceasefire will face extraordinarily daunting challenges,” Sun noted. “It will demand far greater effort from both sides.”
The ongoing stalemate raises concerns about the future of peace in the region, leaving many hopeful yet uncertain about a resolution to the conflict.
