A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has raised concerns that the United States’ tariffs on Chinese imports could impact the US economy more severely than official data suggests.
The report highlights that discrepancies in trade data between the US and China may have led to an underestimation of the true effect of the tariffs on American consumers. According to Hunter L. Clark, an economic policy advisor at the New York Fed, “Simply stated, the US is saying it buys from China a lot less than what China says it is selling.”
This mismatch means that the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods might have a bigger impact on the US economy than anticipated. The study warns that American households could bear a heavier burden, especially if the administration removes favorable treatment for so-called “de minimis” imports—items valued at less than $800 that currently face zero tariffs.
If these changes occur and Chinese sellers do not lower their prices to offset the tariffs, US consumers might face higher costs on everyday products. “American consumers could be facing larger consequences than expected,” Clark noted in the report.
The findings suggest a need for policymakers to consider the potential ripple effects of trade policies on domestic consumers, especially in a global economy where supply chains and trade relationships are deeply interconnected.
