The tension between Israel and Iran isn’t just about missiles and military might; it’s also about endurance—the ability to sustain a conflict over time. And at the heart of this endurance lies a crucial resource: oil.
Why Oil Matters
Oil isn’t just fuel; it’s the lifeblood of economies. For Iran, oil revenues make up a significant portion of its income. This means that as long as Iran can keep selling oil, it can fund its military and sustain a prolonged conflict.
Israel, on the other hand, relies heavily on support from external allies, particularly the United States. With a small geographic area, Israel’s economy and infrastructure are more vulnerable to disruption. To maintain its defense and possibly go on the offensive, Israel needs robust support.
The Struggle Over Oil
Some might think that if Israel were to target Iran’s oil facilities, it could cripple Iran’s economy. However, doing so could strain Israel’s relationship with the United States. The U.S. might hesitate to support attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure because it could lead to global economic instability and conflict with their own strategic interests.
Moreover, Iran has developed ways to bypass sanctions and continue selling oil through methods like using “ghost fleets” and covert financial channels. This resilience makes it harder to cut off Iran’s oil revenue entirely.
The Global Oil Market
The oil market is complex. While tensions in the Middle East can cause short-term spikes in oil prices, long-term prices are more influenced by global production levels. Interestingly, the Middle East, including Iran, doesn’t hold as much sway over global oil production as many believe.
Countries like the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are among the top oil producers. So even if there’s disruption in the Middle East, other countries can adjust their production to stabilize the market.
The Bigger Picture
The real battle between Israel and Iran isn’t just on land or in the air; it’s also economic. Oil gives Iran a financial backbone to support a long-term conflict. Israel’s challenge is to find a way to counteract this without losing crucial international support.
As young people in the Global South, understanding these hidden factors is essential. Conflicts like this one affect not just the regions involved but can have global economic impacts that ripple outward.
