Chinese researchers are warning that the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, known as the ‘Roof of the World,’ is set to experience accelerated warming over the next decade. This rapid temperature rise could have significant impacts on water security and the ecological balance across Asia.
According to a new study by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, from 2025 to 2032, the annual mean temperature on the plateau is projected to increase by 0.98 degrees Celsius compared to the 1991-2020 baseline. That’s a warming rate 1.75 times faster than what was observed between 2016 and 2023.
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is a vast region that plays a crucial role in the climate and water systems of Asia. It’s the source of many of the continent’s major rivers, providing water to hundreds of millions of people.
The study utilized decadal climate prediction, a cutting-edge approach that combines the current state of the climate with external factors like greenhouse gas concentrations, to improve the accuracy of regional climate forecasts. The researchers used advanced international decadal prediction systems to assess temperature changes on the plateau.
Using the Open Global Glacier Model, they simulated how this accelerated warming would affect the glaciers in the region. The results suggest a reduction in glacier volume by approximately 1.4 percent, leading to faster melt rates. This not only threatens water security but could also destabilize the regional ecological balance and have far-reaching climatic consequences globally.
The study highlights that the temperature changes are influenced by internal climate variability, particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, in addition to external factors.
The findings were published in the journal Science Bulletin, emphasizing the urgent need for measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and beyond.
