The Syrian civil war has seen a sudden escalation in recent weeks, with rebel forces making significant advances. Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, offered insights into the situation in a recent interview with China Media Group.
Government Misjudgment
According to Li, the Syrian government may have misread the political landscape, underestimating the ability of rebel groups to challenge the existing political order. This misjudgment led to reduced military investments, including the abolition of compulsory military service and cuts in military spending.
Dependence on Regional Allies
Li emphasized that Syria’s stability heavily relies on support from regional allies, particularly Hezbollah and Iran. The ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war have strained these alliances, impacting Syria’s ability to maintain control.
Challenges Ahead
With resources stretched thin, the Syrian government faces difficulties in mobilizing troops to defend key areas like Damascus. Li pointed out that this makes it challenging for the government to launch effective counterattacks and regain lost territory.
Trilateral Talks
Regarding the recent trilateral talks between Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, Li believes that while they may offer a framework for a future settlement of the Syrian crisis, each country’s individual concerns may limit immediate progress.
Reference(s):
Expert: Government's misjudgment paved way for rebel advance in Syria
cgtn.com
