Berlin, Germany — Friedrich Merz is on track to become Germany’s next chancellor after his conservative alliance, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), emerged as the largest party in the Bundestag following Sunday’s federal election.
The 69-year-old leader now faces the challenge of forming a coalition government, aiming to have one in place by mid-April. With the CDU/CSU securing about 28.5% of the vote, ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at around 20.5%, coalition negotiations are set to be complex.
Despite a clear victory in an election with a high turnout of approximately 84%, Merz’s alliance recorded its second-worst result in eight decades. The major gains by the AfD and the left-wing Linke, both propelled by strong support from young voters, add to the intricacies of coalition building.
A longstanding unwillingness among mainstream parties to partner with the far-right means that an alliance with the AfD is off the table. Similarly, ideological differences make the Linke an unlikely partner for the CDU/CSU.
The Social Democrats (SPD), led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, garnered around 16.5% of the vote, positioning them as the most viable, albeit challenging, coalition partner. Together, the CDU/CSU and SPD could form a slim majority, potentially avoiding the complications of a three-party government.
While their platforms align on external issues such as the Ukraine crisis, defense, and the future of Europe, significant compromises will be needed on economic policies and migration. Merz advocates for a hardline stance on immigration, including permanent border controls and restrictions on asylum seekers, contrasting with the SPD’s call for more nuanced solutions.
On economic matters, the SPD favors relaxing Germany’s strict debt rules to encourage investment, a position the CDU/CSU has traditionally opposed. Merz has shown some flexibility during the campaign, but reaching a consensus will require careful negotiation.
The Greens are another potential coalition partner, but their stark differences with Merz’s policies on immigration could hinder a sustainable agreement. The Free Democrats failed to surpass the 5% threshold needed to enter the Bundestag, limiting coalition options.
With five parties in the 630-seat parliament and 316 seats needed for a majority, a renewed “grand coalition” between the CDU/CSU and SPD appears to be the most plausible outcome. Negotiators will need to bridge policy divides and overcome campaign tensions to establish a stable government.
As Scholz remains as caretaker chancellor until a new government is formed, Merz is under pressure to avoid a prolonged leadership vacuum, especially amid growing concerns in Europe over international policies and alliances.
