Trump Secures Trillion-Dollar Gulf Deals Amid Doubts Over Impact at Home
U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent visit to the Gulf states was marked by grand receptions and the announcement of massive economic agreements. From May 13 to 16, Trump toured Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), sealing deals that allegedly total in the trillions of dollars.
Saudi Arabia pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S., while Qatar agreed on a $1.2 trillion “economic exchange.” In addition, the UAE signed major projects following its earlier commitment in March to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the U.S.
However, experts are questioning the feasibility of these staggering sums. “These deals aren’t likely to materialize in the short term. They will take four to ten years at least, and some may eventually be shelved,” said Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at Fudan University’s Center for Middle East Studies.
Historical precedents support this skepticism. A $350 billion arms agreement announced during Trump’s 2017 Saudi visit largely failed to come to fruition. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, total U.S. exports to Saudi Arabia from 2017 to 2020 amounted to just $92 billion—far from the multi-trillion-dollar figures currently being discussed.
While Saudi Arabia holds significant U.S. assets in securities, its direct investment stock in the U.S. was only $9.5 billion as of 2023, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This disparity leads analysts to believe that the promised investments may be more about political optics than economic reality.
Domestic Politics Over Economic Gains?
Analysts suggest that Trump’s focus is more on domestic political considerations than on actual economic gains. Facing declining approval ratings and criticism over his handling of the economy and inflation, Trump may be using these high-profile foreign deals to shift public attention. “The administration hopes that the narrative of Gulf states’ investments will distract from economic dissatisfaction within the country,” noted Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
A Shift in Middle East Policy
Notably absent from Trump’s itinerary was Israel, raising questions amid ongoing tensions in Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. Experts believe this signals a broader shift in U.S. Middle East policy, steering away from active involvement in regional conflicts.
“The administration lacks both the capacity and the will to address regional crises. They’re relying more on Gulf states to manage regional issues themselves,” said Andreas Krieg, a lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies.
The trip also highlighted growing strains between the U.S. and Israel. Trump’s decision to lift some sanctions on Syria on May 13 further complicated relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Additionally, the U.S. has engaged directly with Hamas to secure the release of an American hostage, bypassing Israel in the process.
“The U.S. appears increasingly out of sync with Israel,” observed Wang Jin, a research fellow at the Syria Research Center of Northwest University. “On issues like Syria and the Houthis, the U.S. is opting for pragmatic dialogue, whereas Israel expects a more aggressive stance.”
Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas commented on the changing dynamics, saying that while Trump isn’t against Israel, he doesn’t prioritize it either. “Netanyahu has nothing Trump wants and has become an irritant—an irritant doesn’t contribute to the bank account,” Pinkas told media outlets.
As Trump returns home, it remains to be seen whether these ambitious deals will translate into tangible benefits for the U.S. economy or if they are, as some analysts suggest, more about political theater than substantive progress.
