Climate change is intensifying snow droughts worldwide, potentially tripling their frequency by the end of the century, according to a new study by researchers from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the study highlights the alarming impact of global warming on snowpack levels, which are crucial for water supplies and ecosystems.
Snow droughts occur when there is significantly less snowpack than normal for the season. They are classified as “dry”—resulting from below-average winter precipitation; “warm”—caused by higher temperatures leading to rain instead of snow or early snowmelt despite normal precipitation levels; and “compound”—a combination of both dry and warm conditions.
Using multiple climate models, the researchers projected the frequency of snow droughts under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Their findings indicate a marked increase in snow drought events through 2100. Under the intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), snow drought frequency could triple compared to 1981 levels. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), snow droughts could quadruple.
Notably, warm snow droughts are expected to dominate future trends. By 2050, they could comprise about 65% of all snow drought events. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of warm snow droughts could increase by 6.6 times, while compound dry-warm events—posing the greatest risk to ecosystems and water infrastructure—may become 3.7 times more common.
The study also revealed that mid- and high-latitude regions are projected to experience more frequent and intense snow droughts. These findings are critical for informing global water security strategies and climate adaptation efforts, especially in regions dependent on snowmelt for water resources.
